Last week, 429 originators switched companies and 1,187individuals obtained their NMLS license. Notable originator movements lastweek include:
Figures are based on last 14 months’ production.
Top Gainers (non-Bank/CU):
Calculations based on last aggregate production of individual LO’s 14 months’ production for companies with at least 20 loan officers. Excludes companies below $100M in 14mo LO production value after gains factored in.
In our last article, we highlighted the MI removalopportunity inside servicing portfolios.
This time, we zoomed out.
We analyzed active non-VA loans across our database tomeasure two things:
What we found should reframe the industry narrative.
Refinance Opportunity
Using the most recent Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)rate of 6.11%, we set our refinance trigger threshold at PMMS + 0.50% (6.61%).
Why?
Because meaningful refinance opportunity is not just"lower than today’s rate." It requires margin - room to justifytransaction costs and borrower benefit.
We identified all non-VA loans with rates ≥ 6.61%.
The result:
Methodology:
Refi Opportunity (Volume) = Sum of home values for non-VA loans where interestrate ≥ 6.61% × 80%
Refi Opportunity (Units) = Count of non-VA loans where rate ≥ 6.61%
Even in a higher-rate environment, nearly $1.8 trillion inrefinance-eligible collateral exists today using a conservative threshold.
This is not 2020-style refi mania.
It is targeted, data-driven opportunity.
Equity Opportunity
Next, we measured tappable equity.
We analyzed non-VA loans with current LTVs below 80% andcalculated available equity up to the 80% LTV threshold.
Here is what surfaced:
Methodology:
Equity Opportunity (Volume) = (Sum of AVMs × 80%) − (Sum of current loanbalances)
Equity Opportunity (Units) = Count of non-VA loans where current LTV < 80%
That is over $17 trillion in accessible equity withinconservative lending standards.
Not speculative value.
Actionable borrowing capacity.
The Real Story
The prevailing narrative says:
But the data tells a different story.
There are:
The opportunity is not gone.
It is unevenly distributed - and increasingly dependent onprecision.
What This Means for Lenders
The next mortgage cycle will not be driven by broad ratedrops alone.
It will be driven by:
The winners will not wait for rates to fall.
They will activate the borrowers who already qualify.
When it comes to mortgage market intelligence, you have ahandful of options, and RETR is one that truly stands out. Here’s what Dino Katsiametis, Founder & CEO of Ethos Lending has to say about RETR: “RETR has completely streamlined how we track loan officer and realtor production. It delivers real-time insights that used to take hours to gather and turns data into actionable growth opportunities. If you’re in mortgage or real estate and want a smarter way to manage performance, RETR is the tool to beat.”
But you don’t have to take their word for it. RETR offers a free trial to loan officers, branches, and mortgage companies to judge the quality of the data and insights for themselves.