Last week, 287 originators switched companies and 1,288 individuals obtained their NMLS license. Notable originator movements last week include:
Figures are based on last 14 months’ production.
Top Gainers (non-Bank/CU):
Calculations based on last aggregate production of individual LO’s 14 months’ production. Excludes companies below $100M in 14mo LO production value after gains factored in.
Part 2 of our Agent Loyalty & Risk Series
In Part 1, we looked at how often high-producing real estate agents changed their top loan officer over a 12-month period.
The answer was significant.
Among 88,823 agents with complete monthly data from August 2025 through August 2026:
47.9% had a different #1 loan officer at some point during the year.
41.9% had a different #1 LO one year later.
And 35.1% had a different top LO who remained #1 for at least the final three consecutive months.
That led to the next question:
Can you tell which agent relationships are more likely to change before they actually do?
That's what the Agent Risk Score is designed to help identify.
So we decided to test it.
We Went Back to the Beginning
For each agent in our study, we looked at their Agent Risk Score in August 2025.
Then we ignored what the score said and simply watched what happened next.
Did the same loan officer remain the agent's #1 LO?
Or did another loan officer move into the top position?
We measured the outcome after 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months.
The differences were substantial.
What Happened One Year Later?
Here is the percentage of agents who had a different #1 loan officer 12 months later, based on their Risk level at the beginning of the study:
No Risk: 4.8%
Watching: 17.5%
Flag: 44.7%
Act Now: 70.6%
Critical: 81.9%
The higher the starting Risk level, the more likely the agent was to have a different top loan officer one year later.
The difference between the ends of the spectrum is particularly notable.
An agent starting in the Critical category was more than 17 times as likely to have a different #1 loan officer one year later as an agent starting with No Risk.
But we didn't have to wait a year to see separation.
The Difference Appeared Quickly
After just one month:
After three months:
After six months:
The relationship between Risk level and subsequent movement was visible across every time horizon we examined.
What If the Change Was Only Temporary?
Just as we did in Part 1, we wanted to make sure short-term movement wasn't creating an exaggerated picture.
So we applied a stricter test.
Instead of simply asking whether another LO occupied the #1 position at the end of the year, we required the new LO to remain #1 for the final three consecutive monthly snapshots.
The pattern remained.
Among agents who began the period:
So elevated Risk wasn't merely associated with brief monthly reshuffling.
The higher-risk relationships were substantially more likely to experience a change that persisted.
Risk Is Not a Prediction That an Agent Will Leave
There is an important distinction here.
An Agent Risk Score does not say that an agent is definitely going to stop doing business with their current top LO.
Our analysis isn't measuring complete relationship loss.
We're measuring whether another loan officer becomes the agent's #1 mortgage relationship.
The incumbent LO may continue receiving loans from that agent.
And even among agents in the highest Risk categories, not every relationship changed.
Risk is exactly that: risk.
What the data shows is that the level of risk was meaningfully associated with what happened next.
That Creates Another Important Question
Knowing that a relationship is at elevated risk is useful.
But its practical value depends heavily on timing.
If the warning appears at the same time the relationship changes, there isn't much an LO can do with it.
If the warning appears several months earlier, that's a very different story.
So for Part 3, we're going to reverse the analysis.
Instead of starting with the Risk Score and looking forward, we're going to start with agent relationships that actually changed and look backward.
How much warning was visible before another loan officer took the #1 position?
That's next.
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