Skip to content

Mortgage Market Intel #37 - How Much Warning Is There Before an Agent Relationship Changes?

Picture of Steven Wynands

Market Movers

Last week, 519 originators switched companies and 1,244 individuals obtained their NMLS license. Notable originator movements last week include:

Figures are based on last 14 months’ production.

Market Movers (Gainers by Producer Volume)

Top Gainers (non-Bank/CU):

  1. Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc. +17.79%
  2. Republic State Mortgage Co. +16.27%
  3. NEXT WAVE MORTGAGE, LLC +12.57%
  4. Rosegate +9.28%
  5. Thrive Lending LLC +9.08%
  6. Promise Home Loans, Inc. +6.85%
  7. Ladera Lending, Inc. +6.35%
  8. Renovation Finance LLC +6.02%
  9. Origna8 Mortgage LLC +5.79%
  10. ZOOM HOME LENDING LLC +5.16%
  11. NEXA Mortgage, LLC +4.57%
  12. Canopy Mortgage, LLC +4.02%
  13. Standard Mortgage Capital LLC +3.6%

Calculations based on last aggregate production of individual LO’s 14 months’ production. Excludes companies below $100M in 14mo LO production value after gains factored in.

 

RETR Newsletter-37-Agent-Risk-Part3-Image

How Much Warning Is There Before an Agent Relationship Changes? 

Part 3 of our Agent Loyalty & Risk Series

In Part 1, we found that high-producing agent relationships move more than many loan officers might expect.

In Part 2, we found that higher Agent Risk Scores were strongly associated with a greater likelihood of another LO taking the #1 position.

That raised the next question:

How much warning do you actually get before the relationship changes?

To find out, we reversed the analysis. We identified agent relationships where a different loan officer moved into the #1 position and remained there for at least three consecutive monthly snapshots.

Then we looked backward.

One month before those persistent changes:

97.5% were already at Flag or higher.

67.5% were already at Act Now or Critical.

And the warning often appeared earlier than that.

76.1% had reached Act Now or Critical at least once during the prior three months.

78.9% had reached that level at least once during the prior six months.

We also looked at what happened after an agent first reached Act Now or Critical.

18.1% experienced a change in their #1 LO within one month.

41.0% experienced a change within three months.

60.0% experienced a change within six months.

That progression may be the most important finding.

An elevated Risk Score does not necessarily mean the relationship is already lost. In fact, most had not changed after the first month.

But as time passed, the likelihood of a change increased substantially.

We could often see who was gaining ground as well.

One month before a persistent change, the LO who eventually became #1 was already identified as the challenger in 58.6% of cases.

Across the prior six months, the eventual winner appeared as the challenger at least once in 66.0% of cases.

That suggests there is often a meaningful period between the emergence of Risk and an eventual change in the relationship.

And that may be the real value of the signal.

Knowing who your loyal agents are tells you where your strongest relationships stand today.

Knowing which of those relationships are beginning to change may tell you where your attention should go next.

Which brings us to Part 4:

Can an at-risk agent relationship recover?

Upcoming RETR Training

    • Mon, Sep 14 @ 2p ET - Intro to RETR: The Modern Loan Officer’s Data Advantage Register           
    • Wed, Sep 16 @ 1p ET - How to Win Realtor Relationships with RETR Register            
    Note: Full training calendar is available at https://training.retr.com

Is RETR Better?

When it comes to mortgage market intelligence, you have a handful of options, and RETR is one that truly stands out. Here’s what Michael Puorro, a top producer at Embrace Home Loans has to say about RETR: “RETR really is better! I’ve tried other realtor/mortgage data systems and none of them were as complete for my market area. RETR is organized in a simple and easy way, making it super easy to navigate multiple accounts and pull up data. The insight I get into new and existing referral sources is paramount to my business and I wouldn’t know how to operate without it!”

RETR Newsletter-37-Agent-Risk-Part3-39_User Testimonial - Michael Puorro

 But you don’t have to take their word for it. RETR offers a free trial to individuals and organizations to judge the quality of the data and insights for themselves.